The pie is done, ditto the potato dish and the carrots, and the chicken is in the oven with something I've never tried before: making herb butter and stuffing it under the skin. I must say the place smells divine!!! I expect the neighbors will be telling me this when I run into them in the hallway soon.
Meanwhile, however, I'm horsing around online and checking the blogs. You may enjoy this one in particular, too: Old Phat Stu, who had a fascinating post yesterday on ejection seats (as in pilots). Stu was a flight instructor for "going on three decades," and he knows his stuff. Stu also has a policy of using email for comments. So I'm sharing my email/comments to & from him with you. He lives far, far away.
My first question regarding his post was this:
To which he replied:But how could he be killed with all those precautionary restraints? or did he pull the handle himself? you know SO MUCH! glory....
Given that I was a flying instructor for nigh on three decades, Mary, it would be an embuggerance (q.v) if I did NOT Know how an ejection seat works.And I said:
All technical devices (and even social structures) only work as intended when a (perhaps implicit) set of assumptions are satisfied.
Part of doing risk analyses is identifying those assumptions ( aka drawing a risk tree) and checking they are satisfied.
For Fukushima these (should have) included simultaneous earthquake AND tsunami;
uncovering the cores and the dampening pools, loss of electricity for more than 3 days, running out of diesel fuel , etc etc.
For crossing the road it includes looking both ways first. We teach our kids specific instances like that one, but as a rule people are not taught how to do General risk assessment.
And so on....then I asked him, since he's also a mathematician and so smart,As I read your note @technology and risk assessment, I am on the Metro going downtown to meet a friend to borrow a pie tin. An ordinary trip that usually takes abt 17 mins. And....tada....the train has stopped. A Metro employee walks through the cars shaking her head. Soon the train backs up to the platform, the doors open, and a bunch of people get on. Did the doors not open at that platform the first time? Now we're moving....and now we're stopped again. Does Metro do this to annoy us? It seems to be the law of technology these days that it always breaks down--whether it's a massive failure involving natural phenomena like Fukushima or just a Saturday morning glitch involving a worn-out switch. Ha. Soon I'll meet my friend, get the pie tin, and go back home to cook Sat. pm dinner--with apple pie. That I can do with my bare hands and my little red-handled knife (and the mostly risk-free assumption that the oven will work and the water in the sink will run).
He says:OK, so tell me. How do I pick a winning lottery number?
Buy ALL the tickets!!Of course he's right. I'm still laughing.